Study on the fishing ground forecasting of chub mackerel based on a 3D numerical ocean model in the East China Sea

Abstract:

The relationship between central fishing ground and sea surface temperature (SST) were analyzed quantitatively by a mathematical statistics method, based on the monthly (from July to December) fishery data of chub mackerel (Scomber japonica) in the East China Sea from 1998 to 2011. The fishing ground of chub mackerel in the East China Sea was divided into two parts, the northern and southern fishing ground, by a zonal boundary along 32°N, and the optimal SST of each fishing ground was obtained from the result of statistics. Based on the ocean model, ECOM-si, a three dimension (3D) numerical model coupled with modules of temperature, salinity and current simulation in the East China Sea was established to do fishing ground forecasting. Using the monthly optimal SST as criterion, the numerical model coupled with a preliminary?fishing ground forecasting module of chub mackerel. The fishing ground forecasting module successfully demonstrated the position variation of central fishing ground of chub mackerel during July to December, the result agreed well with the historical fishing data. The numerical model reproduced the process of the northern fishing ground developed surrounding deep water of the Yellow Sea since August, covered the maximum area of optimal SST in October, moved southward in November, and occupied the deep water area of the Yellow Sea Basin in December. On the southern fishing ground, maximum area of optimal SST occurred in August, then decreased dramatically in October, and moved from the west side of the Kuroshio mainstream and withdraw westward to near the isobaths of 100 m in November and December. The results show that the 3D numerical model with modules of temperature, salinity and current simulation and the preliminary?fishing fishery forecasting module could be applied to do studies on fishing ground forecasting of the important fisheries in the East China Sea.