基于灰色关联的全球海洋渔业资源开发状况评价

Evaluation on exploitation of global marine fisheries resources based on grey theory system

摘要:

利用1990—2019年全球19个渔区渔获量数据，通过灰色关联聚类分析法，研究了全球各渔区渔获量与总渔获量以及各渔区渔获量之间的关系，并确定了同类型渔区中影响渔获量大小的主要鱼种类型。结果发现，全球大多数渔区渔获量与全球海域总渔获量关联度较大，灰色关联度大于0.900的渔区有16个。除南极大西洋扇区、南极太平洋扇区和北冰洋外，其余各渔区相互间的关联度均高于0.900。设定关联聚类矩阵的临界值r=0.975作为分类依据，获得分类明显的类群Ⅰ和类群Ⅱ，其中类群Ⅰ包含西北太平洋、东北大西洋、东北太平洋、东南大西洋、中西大西洋、地中海及黑海等6个渔区，其渔获量趋势均在一定范围内上下波动；类群Ⅱ包含中西太平洋、东印度洋、中东大西洋、西印度洋等4个渔区，其渔获量呈稳定增长趋势。两个类群中鱼种渔获量与渔区总渔获量灰色关联度最高的均为中上层鱼类和底层鱼类。研究表明，利用灰色理论系统可对全球各渔区海洋渔业资源开发状态进行科学评价，其评价结果可为全球海洋渔业的可持续发展提供参考。

Abstract:

Marine fishery resources are important animal protein sources for human beings, the rational exploitation of which is of great significance. Based on the catch data of 19 global fishing areas from 1990 to 2019, this paper studied the relationship between the catch and total catch of each fishing areas, and among catches of each fishing areas by using grey correlation clustering, and the main species types that affect catches in the same fishing areas were identified. The results showed that there was a strong correlation between the catch in most fishing areas and the total catch of global seas, and there were 16 fishing areas with a grey correlation degree greater than 0.900. With the exception of the Antarctic Atlantic, Antarctic Pacific and Arctic Sea, the other fishing areas are correlated with each other by more than 0.900. The critical value r=0.975 of the associated clustering matrix was set as the classification basis, and the groups Ⅰ and Ⅱ with obvious classification were obtained. GroupⅠ includes Northwest Pacific, Northeast Atlantic, Northeast Pacific, Southeast Atlantic, Western Central Atlantic, Mediterranean and Black Sea, and the catch trends of the six fishing areas all fluctuated within a certain range; Group Ⅱ includes Western Central Pacific, Eastern Indian Ocean, Eastern Central Atlantic, and Western Indian Ocean, the catch of which showed a steady increase trend. Pelagic marine fish and demersal marine fish had the highest grey correlation with the total catch of the two groups. Our findings suggested that the grey theory system can be used to scientifically evaluate the exploitation status of marine fishery resources in various fishing areas of the world, and the evaluation results can provide reference for the sustainable development of global marine fishery.