改革开放40年来中国渔业产业发展及十四五产量预测

Development of Chinese fishery industry in 40 years of reform and opening up and production forecast in the 14th five-year plan

摘要:

改革开放以来，中国渔业发展取得了巨大成就，在世界粮食安全、社会经济发展等领域做出了重要贡献。认真总结改革开放40年以来取得的成绩，客观分析其产业发展与结构演变过程，预测未来发展趋势，是新时代渔业发展的重要研究课题。根据1978—2017年我国渔业生产统计数据以及国家渔业政策，对中国渔业发展划分不同发展阶段，利用灰色关联对中国渔业发展的不同阶段进行产业结构分析，建立多种灰色预测模型GM （1，1），并利用最优模型对十四五中国渔业产量进行预测。研究认为：改革开放40年来我国渔业发展可分为5个阶段，即恢复发展期（1978—1984年）、快速发展期（1985—1994年）、扩量发展期（1995—2005年）、稳步发展期（2006—2011年）和转型发展期（2012年以来），每个阶段都有各自的发展特点，不同渔业产业对渔业发展都发挥了重要作用；十四五期间中国渔业总产量将稳定在6 600万~7 100万t，其中近海捕捞在1 000万~1 080万t，海水养殖为2 120万~2 370万t，淡水养殖为3 040万~3 260万t；改革开放40年来中国渔业坚持了生态与渔业协调发展的理念，确立了广大渔民的主体地位，制定了与不同发展阶段相匹配的产业政策，建立了与产业现状相适应的管理制度，开发了与行业需求相适应的新兴技术，这些经验和政策为中国渔业持续发展做出了重要的贡献。同时，研究也提出了未来中国渔业高质量发展的建议。

Abstract:

Since the introduction of the reform and opening-up policy, China’s fishery industry has made great achievements and made great contributions to world food security, social and economic development and other fields. It is an important research subject of fishery development in the new era to sum up the achievements made since the reform and opening-up 40 years ago, objectively analyze the industrial development and the structural evolution process, and forecast the development trend in the future. Based on the statistical data of China’s fishery production from 1978 to 2017 and the national fishery policy, this paper divides the different development stages, and analyzes the industrial structure of China’s fishery development in different stages by using the grey relation theory, several grey forecasting models GM (1,1) were established and the optimal model was used to forecast the fishery output of in the 14th five-year plan in China. We think that China’s fishery development can be divided into five stages in the past 40 years of reform and opening-up, namely, recovery development period (1978-1984), rapid development period (1985-1994), expansion development period (1995-2005), steady development period (2006-2011) and transition development period (2012-). It is estimated that during the 14th five-year plan period, China’s total fishery output will be kept at 66-71 million tons, including 10-10.8 million tons for offshore fishing and 21.2-23.7 million tons for mariculture. In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China’s fishery industry has adhered to the concept of harmonious development of ecology and fishery, established the dominant position of the vast majority of fishermen, and formulated industrial policies that match the different stages of development. The management system adapted to the present situation of the industry has been established, and new and emerging technologies adapted to the needs of the industry have been developed. At the same time, some suggestions for the future development of high quality fishery in China are put forward.