福建鳗鱼制品出口价格动态变化特征分析

The analysis of change characters in Fujian eel product export price

摘要:

利用福建鳗鱼制品出口贸易数据、FAO渔业统计数据以及COMTRADE数据，分析1997-2010年福建鳗鱼制品出口价格变动，并通过协整检验、构建误差修正模型以及Granger因果检验考察其与国际市场该产品平均价格的关系，寻求该产品国际市场价格形成机制。结果表明：福建该类产品在国际市场中占据重要地位，福建鳗鱼制品的出口价格和该类产品的国际市场价格存在长期均衡关系，该均衡价格是由出口方和进口方共同博弈的结果，福建不存在对该产品的国际市场定价权。最后，本文在得出结论的基础上，提出诸如保持该产品出口地位、加强检验检疫监管力度、获得国际市场定价权及加大对新兴市场开拓等进一步提升该类产品出口的政策建议。

Abstract:

The paper analyzed the change of export price of river eel product by using trade data from 1997 to 2010 based on Fujian export statistics，FAOSTAT Fisheries and COMTRADE data. Moreover, this paper also investigated the relationship between Fujian export price and international market price of this product by cointegrated regression test, ECM model and Granger Causality Test. The result showed that Fujian eel product export played an important role in international market, and there is a long term stable relationship between Fujian export price and the international market price, but this relationship was the game results by exporter and importer. Fujian lacks international pricing of this product in international market. At last, according to the analysis, the policy recommendation is proposed to promote Fujian river eel product export, such as maintaining the export status of this product, strengthening inspection and quarantine supervision, obtaining the international market pricing, exploring the emerging markets and so on.