基于Bayes方法的东海小黄鱼资源评析

A stock assessment of small yellow croaker by Bayesbased PellaTomlinson model in the East China Sea

摘要:

利用东海区渔业资源动态监测资料、采用基于Bayes方法的PellaTomlinson模型对东海区小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)渔业资源动态进行了科学评析，同时，在不同渔业政策选择下，对2004-2020年的资源量与渔获量进行了预测模拟研究。研究结果显示：东海区小黄鱼渔业资源的环境容纳量K为394 514t；内禀增长率r为1.146；1991年的资源生物量为338 493 t、尔后持续上升到1994年的370 923t。1994年以后又持续下降，到2003年下降到最低值111 253t；最大持续产量（Maximum sustainable yield，MSY）为107 806t 左右；支持MSY所需的渔业资源生物量为197 503t；支持MSY所需的捕捞努力量为441 097 6网次；当前资源量与环境容纳量K的比值为0.282，即当前资源量已不足原始资源量的30%；若2004年以后使用0.4的捕捞死亡系数，该渔业资源可以实现持续最优利用。

Abstract:

The fish stock assessment is important groundwork for presentday fish stock management.The report presents a stock assessment of small yellow croaker in East China Sea by Bayesbased PellaTomlinson model,and a forecasting of biomass and catch from different fisheries policy in 2003-2020. All of the data used in this study are from the monitoring for fisheries resources in East China Sea.The research results show that the carrying capacity K is 410 281tons and the intrinsic growth rate r is 1.129;the estimated stock biomass increased from approximately 332 654 tons in 1991 to 370 923 tons in 1994 and then declined to the minimum 131 416 tons in 2003;the estimated MSY is 110 000tons; the estimated biomass for achieving MSY is about 200 000 tons ;the estimated effort for achieving MSY is 1 373 380 nets; the stock depletion level (Bcur/K ) is about 0.319, i.e. the current biomass is less than by 40 per cent of the initial biomass;if using less than 0.4 of fishing mortality after 2004, this will bring about an optimal utilization to the fishery.